Huadian International (600027) 2019 performance forecast and business data review-volume and price rise, performance doubles, estimated marginal safety margin

Huadian International (600027) 2019 performance forecast and business data review-volume and price rise, performance doubles, estimated marginal safety margin

The company’s power generation in 2019 increased by ten years.

8%, the on-grid tariff including tax increases by 1 every year.

2%, forecasting the expected growth rate of 90-110%, in line with expectations.

Looking forward to 2020, we believe that the price of electricity in the thermal power industry is nearing the end of its release, and the downward trend in coal prices has driven the company’s ROE to continue.

The company is estimated to be at the bottom of history with a clear margin of safety.

Maintain the company’s “Buy” rating and target price of 4.

90 yuan.

In 2019, electricity and electricity prices will rise, and performance will increase by 90-110%.

The company released the 2019 performance forecast and operating data announcement.

The power generation in 2019 is 2151.

100 million kWh, an increase of 1 in ten years.

8%; average on-grid electricity price is 414.

5 yuan / MWh, an increase of 1 in ten years.

2%.

In 2019, the company notices that the net profit of returning mothers will increase by 15上海夜网论坛%.

5-19.

0 billion, reaching about 32.

8-36.

300 million, a growth rate of 90-110% in ten years.

In terms of quarters, the company’s net profit attributable to the parent in the single quarter of 2019Q4 is estimated7.

6-11.

1 ppm, 2 of 18Q4 a year.

300 million increased by 230-382%.

With reference to the company’s operating data, we estimate that the company’s provision for impairment in 2019Q4 is about 7-8 trillion, and 2018Q4 is 1.

200000000.

Electricity prices will increase slightly in 2019 and are expected to stabilize in 2020.

The company’s tax-included on-grid tariffs will increase by 1 in 2019.

2%, considering the reduction of 3 units in April 2019, excluding the increase in tax electricity prices.

The initial market power accounted for 53.

7%, at least 10% in 2018
.

1 unit.

Under the “benchmark + floating” electricity price mechanism launched in 2020, it is expected that the company’s market power share will continue to increase.

However, referring to the results of the 2020 long-term association charge transaction in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Anhui and other places, the overall discount rate for electricity consumption is expected to be stable.

Therefore, the decline of the company’s comprehensive electricity price in 2020 is expected to be within 1-2%, and the impact on the company’s profits can be covered by a slight decline in coal prices.

Coal prices are expected to fall by about 4% in 2019, and it is optimistic that costs will continue to be saved in 2020.

In 2019, Qinhuangdao Port’s 5,500 kcal coal price exceeded about 10% of the decline. Considering the company’s long-term association and spot ratio, we predict that the company’s unit price of tax-free coal in 2019 will fall by about 30 yuan / ton or 4%.

Under the expectation that coal supply and demand will continue to be loosened in 2020, we expect the coal price hub to continue to decline, driving the company’s ROE to further repair.
Risk factors: The electricity price fell more than expected, the coal price fell less than expected, and the electricity amount fell short of expectations.
Investment suggestion: According to the company’s latest announcement data, we update the electricity price change forecast for 2020/2021 to -1.

7% /-0.

4%, online electricity can be predicted to change to +3.

9% / + 1.

0%, the short-term change in coal prices is predicted to be -3.

0% /-3.

0%, updated 2019-2021 performance forecast to 33.

0/43.

3/46.

6 trillion, converted EPS forecast is 0.

33/0.

44/0.

47 yuan.

The company’s current corresponding P / E is 11/8/8 times, and the corresponding P / B in 2019 is 0.

79 times (after excluding the impact of perpetual debt).

Maintain “Buy” rating and target price of 4.

90 yuan.