Hengrui Pharmaceutical (600276) Q3 2019 Quarterly Report Review: The Company’s Performance Exceeds Expected Revenue and Accelerates Chain Performance

Hengrui Pharmaceutical (600276) Q3 2019 Quarterly Report Review: The Company’s Performance Exceeds Expected Revenue and Accelerates Chain Performance

Company performance Today, the company announced the 2019 third quarter report, revenue exceeded expectations, the volume of new drugs in line with expectations, and generic drugs accelerated slightly.

Realized income 169.

500 million, 36% a year; net profit attributable to mother is 37.

4 trillion, about 28 a year.

3%; deduction for non-return to mother 35.

4 ‰, 27 per year.

3%; budget benefit is about 0.

84 yuan.

  Opinions The company’s performance exceeded expectations, its revenue accelerated over the previous quarter, and its Q3 single-quarter performance was impressive. Newly approved tumor types and contrast agent varieties were rapidly increasing: the company achieved an increase in revenue of approximately 36%.

01%, Q3 quarterly revenue growth rate of about 47% per quarter, we expect to be related to the sales of new batches of tumors, contrast agents, some generic drugs, new batches of tumors such as PD-1, pirlotinib, 19K, albuminPaclitaxel, etc.

  In addition, the contrast media segment is expected to grow rapidly in the first three quarters (previously expected to exceed 40%).

As a result, other varieties as a whole have maintained steady growth. It is expected that apatinib will be the same as last year, and dexmedetomidine will receive a slight decline in the impact of volume purchases.

The gross profit margin is about 87.

2%, a year rose 0.

6%; sales expense ratio is about 36.

4%, about 0 in a year.

9%; R & D expenses are about 28.

9.9 billion, a previous growth rate of about 武汉夜生活 66.

97%.

  When this round of innovative pharmaceutical and medical insurance negotiations breaks through, it is expected that the company will have heavy varieties in the catalogue: this round of medical insurance negotiations is expected to replace more than 150 varieties, and it is expected that preliminary results will be announced in November.

The company, pirlotinib, 19K is expected to become a potential transitional alternative, and is expected to negotiate a price cut into the medical insurance catalog.

The current monthly amount of pirlotinib is about 2.

50,000 yuan, the donation policy is the “3 + 3” plan; the price of a single 19K winning bid is the lowest in the country at about 3680 yuan per support.

After the negotiated price reduction is classified as medical insurance, the performance is expected to grow rapidly next year, especially 19K is a long-acting dosage form instead of a short-acting dosage form, and the growth rate is expected to be higher.

  R & D costs continue to increase, and early clinical potential varieties and overseas clinics are worth looking forward to: R & D expenses in the first three quarters are about 28.

9.9 billion yuan, accounting for 17.

1%, 67% a year.

The proportion of R & D expenditure increased, and Q1 / Q2 / Q3 supplemented about 6.

6 billion, 8.

200 million, 14 billion.

Recently, the company’s SHR0302 has been approved by the FDA clinical, SHR1702, SHR1701 and other clinical approvals have been obtained. PD-1 combined with apatinib FDA has entered phase III clinical trials. PD-L1 combined with IL-15 has received CDE clinical approval.

We expect that there will be no shortage of new drugs in the new clinical varieties. It is recommended to pay attention to the clinical progress of new drugs such as IL-17, PD-L1 / TGFβ in domestic clinical practice, and the progress of first-line clinical programs of PD-1 combined with apatinib liver cancer overseas.

  Earnings forecast and investment recommendations take into account the company ‘s concentrated listing and sales contribution of innovative drugs, and domestic and international high-quality generic drugs have been approved, and the performance has grown steadily. We maintain the company ‘s “Buy” rating.

We expect EPS to be 1 in 2019-2021.

19/1.

54/2.

00 yuan, the corresponding PE is 69.

4/53.8/41.

5 times.

  Risks suggest uncertainty in the procurement of generic drugs.

There is uncertainty in the progress of subsequent development of innovative drugs.

There is uncertainty about the clinical and approval of overseas generic drugs and innovative drugs.

The impact of zero tariff on anticancer drugs entering China is uncertain.

There are uncertainties in changes in items such as prepayment, investment income, and non-operating expenses.