Guolian shares (603613) 2019 third quarter report notice comment: performance slightly exceeds expectations, high growth can continue to be expected

Guolian shares (603613) 2019 third quarter report notice comment: performance slightly exceeds expectations, high growth can continue to be expected

The company issued a 3 quarter report notice, the first three quarters achieved a net profit of 95.3 million?
99.3 million yuan, a further increase of 55.

63%?
62.

16%, realized non-net profit of 92.5 million yuan?
96.5杭州夜生活网 million yuan, an increase of 51.

18%?
57.

72%.

  Comment: The performance was slightly higher than expected, and the commodity trading business grew rapidly.

The company achieved a net profit of 95.3 million in the first three quarters?
99.3 million yuan, an annual increase of 55.

63%?
62.

16%, realized non-net profit of 92.5 million yuan?
96.5 million yuan, an annual increase of 51.

18%?
57.

72%; realized revenue of 4 billion?
4.2 billion yuan, an annual increase of 70.

97%?
79.

52%, single-quarter revenue growth in the third quarter showed an accelerating trend. We expect that this will be mainly driven by the rapid growth of the commodity trading business.

“Double 10” transaction volume doubles every year, thus achieving growth beyond guarantee.

A lot of “Double 10” e-commerce festivals performed well in 2019, providing good support for gradual performance.

The termination of “Double 10” ended all day, and the single-day collective procurement order reached 21.

5 ppm is 2 of the single day amount last year.

1 time, create greater glories.

Annual revenue for 2018 was 36.

700 million, “double 10” orders accounted for 59% of last year’s revenue, we judge that the 19-year performance achieved sustained high growth.

Firmly optimistic about the company’s growth prospects.

The company has a vast industry space. According to our calculations, the growth space far exceeds 100 billion yuan.

At the same time, the company ‘s growth logic is smooth, and the three logics support high-speed growth. First, the three major parts of the company that were previously established have achieved high-speed development, and the logic of cross-category development has been gradually realized.Expansion of new commodity categories is expected; second, the majority of the three platforms’ transaction scale still accounts for a very small proportion of the market where the commodity is located, with a penetration rate of about 2%, and there is still a lot of potential for improvement; third, active members of Guolian Resource NetworkThe conversion rate of trading members to many platforms is still affordable.

Investment suggestion: We maintain our forecast that the company’s net profit attributable to its mother for 2019-2021 will be 1.

4.4 billion, 2.

18 billion, 3.

2.7 billion, corresponding to 66 times, 44 times, and 29 times the PE, with reference to comparable companies predicting zero in 2020.

9 times PEG, taking 无锡桑拿网into account the company’s rapid business growth, increased penetration and category expansion are expected to bring the company a large-scale market space, given a certain estimated premium, comprehensively given the company in January 2020.
1x PEG, target city size is 120 trillion, maintain target price of 85.

1 yuan, maintaining the “strong push” level.

Risk warning: market competition is intensified; new varieties are less developed than expected.