Inspur Information (000977) Company Tracking Report: Gating biological effects from profit margins
Investment Highlights: Three Thoughts on the Server Industry.
We have proposed three considerations for the server industry. First, we believe that 5G upgrades drive server demand.
We observe that when 4G is promoted, the growth rate of the server market has a relatively obvious increase, while 5G upgrades, the speed increase of 4G upgrades has changed, so we think 5G will be an important driving force for the server market.
In fact, the rapid growth of CAPEX from overseas technology giants has brought about a continued boom in the server industry. Even Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Apple, Ali and other giants also have separate 武汉夜网论坛 CAPEX negative growth, but in the long run, the compound growth rate remains at a high level.Moreover, Ali, Amazon, Microsoft, and Facebook clearly pointed out that when explaining CAPEX, it is mainly used for the construction of computer equipment, data centers, and cloud computing infrastructure. We believe that the server is an important infrastructure that supports data centers and cloud computing. Therefore, CAPEXThe rapid growth will also bring a sustained boom in the server industry.
Finally, the global server market has changed, and China’s market share has increased.
The world ‘s large-scale data centers are still dominated by the United States, but China has a large number of three times that of the United States, and the contrast is huge. Therefore, we believe that China ‘s IDC will have huge development space in the future, and the server will also have potential procurement requirements.
Low profit margins are in themselves biology.
We believe that overseas technology companies attach great importance to the gross profit margin of their business and will adjust their business structure due to the level of gross profit. Take IBM’s sale of x86 server business to Lenovo as an example. On January 23, 2014, Lenovo Group issued an announcement to 23 billionUSD USD (cash + shares) acquisition of IBM x86 server business.
We believe that because the core technology of x86 is in the hands of Intel and AMD, and the logic of server manufacturing technology is not high. In addition, Inspur Information, an internal enterprise, developed an independent K1 Tissot server in 2013, which impacted the server market and caused IBMThere is no advantage in “low price and volume”, so IBM sold the x86 server business to Lenovo and braked on its high-margin product line that has more core technology.
Therefore, we believe that the low profit margin itself is the performance of the door, so gradually exiting, and the industry structure is constantly optimized.
The server market is concentrated in China, and Inspur is at the forefront.
According to data from source IDC derived from DOIT and IT168, the top five server market shares in 2015 were only Lenovo one Chinese company, while the top five server server market shares in 2018 were three Chinese companies, namely Inspur Information, Huawei and LenovoIn addition, from the perspective of revenue growth by region, in 2017 the demand for the server industry increased by 29 in the United States.
6% in Europe, the Middle East and Africa grew by 17.
4%, China has increased by 33.
8%, Japan grew by 4.
We think the server industry is concentrating on China.
With further increase of market share, it is expected to see an increase in profitability under the effect of scale in the future.
In addition, we observe that the company’s per capita income has increased from 1.52 million in 2012 to 10.1 million yuan in 2018, and the per capita profit has increased from 5 million in 2012 to 140,000 yuan in 2018.To the company’s obvious size effect.
We believe that the company’s server business is expected to continue to be boosted by the demand for cloud computing business of Internet companies. It is expected that the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 will be 0.
37 yuan / share, with reference to a comparable estimate, we assign a dynamic PE of 40-45 times in 2019, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 27.
6 yuan, given the “preliminary market” rating.
Internet enterprise server demand is not up to expectations.