Month: March 2020

Guizhou Moutai (600519): Sales plan exceeds expectations and no quarterly or quarterly change is required

Guizhou Moutai (600519): Sales plan exceeds expectations and no quarterly or quarterly change is required
Comment event: On December 27, Guizhou Moutai announced that the 2020 Moutai liquor sales plan is 3.45 inches.  On January 2, the company announced production and operation data, and the production of Moutai base wine in 2019 was about 4.In the 1999s, the series of liquor-based wines was about 2.51 budget; realized total operating income of 88.5 billion US dollars, an increase of about 15%; realized net profit attributable to mothers, 40.5 billion yuan, an increase of about 15%; total operating income growth guidance for 2020 is 10%.  First, the sales plan next year exceeded expectations, and began to gradually increase the volume. The rising cycle continued in 2019, and the sales plan for Moutai was 3.About 1 in comparison, next year’s sales plan is significantly increased by 3,500 tons, up by 11 every other increase.29%.Considering the long-term supply-demand gap in recent years, unplanned releases are more common.Planned volume for 2018 2.8 for the first time, actual placement 3.25 is the highest; the actual investment in 2019 is expected to be the same as in 2018, still 3.25 ounces.  Based on this judgment, real sales are expected to exceed 3 in 2020.5 is the lowest, the highest increase is a large number, slightly more than expected.The 2020 annual sales plan exceeded expectations and dispelled the market’s doubts about the lack of growth momentum in the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” year-end. Moutai base wines will gradually increase in 2021, and the sales volume of Moutai wines is expected to enter the volume phase. Moutai in the post-100 billion era will riseThe cycle will continue.  Second, the Pfeiffer ex-factory price is raised by storage variables, the direct sales ratio is increased, and the comprehensive tonnage price is considered. Considering the deepening reform of the marketing system, combined with the 2020 sales plan and revenue indicators, whether there will be a variable increase in the Pfeiffer ex-factory price next year.The company leaders stated at the dealer conference that after the Spring Festival, they will study and set up new self-operated e-commerce; according to the “integrated” ideas and requirements, arrange business plans, e-commerce, and group purchase plans; focus on the development of self-operated scale in the future.It should grow exponentially in principle.We judge: 1. Through the adjustment of channels and the increase in the proportion of direct sales, as well as the increase in the proportion of non-standard Moutai, the comprehensive replacement of Moutai wine will significantly increase.2. The sales plan of Moutai exceeded expectations. Against the background of high certainty of future volume and price increases, Pfeiffer will directly increase the ex-factory price and storage variables next year, reducing the necessity.3. In the short-term, increase the average ex-factory price through channel adjustments and product structure upgrades, delay the price increase rhythm, and prioritize the reform of the marketing system. The pace of continuous growth will be more solid.  Third, the short-term imbalance between supply and demand and distorted consumption structure makes it difficult to lower the price of Moutai. The wholesale price and terminal price of Moutai have remained high in the past two years. The essential reason is that the adjustment of channels and sales models has caused the market and consumer structure of Moutaidistortion.A large number of dealers were confiscated, which led to the shrinking of quotas for group buying channels such as traditional dealers, the expansion of channels that real consumers can purchase, and the difficulty of purchasing increased.In addition, most ordinary people are not consumers of Moutai, and the increase in channels such as e-commerce has reduced Moutai, resulting in non-real demand such as rush buying, arbitrage, and stockpiling.The imbalance between supply and demand and the distortion of the consumption structure have led to the price of Moutai being maintained at a high level for a long time.According to the information passed by the dealer conference, 7,500 tons of Moutai will be released before the Spring Festival in 2020, of which at least 6,000 tons will be invested in social channels.  淡水桑拿网This stabilized the quota expectation of traditional dealers, but the overall quota was still excessive.We judge that during the transitional phase of the reform, the peak season will meet the demand of traditional channels, the channel reform will be deepened in the off-season, and the real landing and the real volume of Moutai will gradually be realized, and the price may return to a reasonable level.  Fourth, the fourth quarter profit compression adjustment, quarterly growth does not change and continued growth According to operating data, if the net profit gradually returns to only about 405, the net profit attributable to the mother in the fourth quarter alone is about 100.4.5 billion, down 4% a year.In the case of sales volume and revenue in line with expectations, no change in ex-factory price, and increase in the direct 武汉夜网论坛 sales ratio to drive the comprehensive range, it is not normal for net profit to decrease and net interest rate to decline significantly.Conjectures: 1. In the same period last year, the volume of boutique Moutai products increased, and the base value of the average ton price increased slightly; 2. The expenses and expenses confirmed in the fourth quarter of this year may be adjusted by means of fee supplementation to reduce the single-quarter and alternative profit levels.We don’t think it is necessary to extend the quarterly quarter without excessive volume and price.As long as the production and operation conditions are good, profits will eventually be released.In the future, there is still plenty of room to increase the volume and price of Moutai, and continued growth is expected.  Earnings forecast and rating: According to the latest operating data and sales plan, adjust the revenue growth rate for 2019-2021 to be 15%, 16%, 20%, and the net profit growth rate is 15%, 20%, 26%, corresponding to EPS Respectively 32.29, 38.87, 48.84 yuan.  Taking into account the leading premium and potential long-term performance growth space, maintain a target price of 1,325 yuan, corresponding to an estimated EPS of 34 times PE in 2020.Maintain “Buy” rating.  Risk reminder: If the future ex-factory price increase or the comprehensive sales price is lower than expected, the profit forecast and EPS in an optimistic situation may not meet expectations.

Depth-Company-BYD (002594): Promising prospects for joint venture Toyota land

Depth * Company * BYD (002594): The prospect of joint venture Toyota landing in many ways is promising

The company recently announced an agreement with Toyota Motor Corporation on November 7, 2019 to establish a joint venture company for pure electric vehicle research and development.

The two parties will share 50% of the equity of each joint venture company. The joint venture company will be jointly formed by personnel from the military-related businesses of the two sides. The main business scope is the design and development of pure electric vehicles and their derivative vehicles and related parts.

The cooperation between the company and Toyota has officially landed, and it is expected to realize the strong combination of the company’s advantages in the pure electric vehicle market, research and development capabilities, and Toyota’s advantages in terms of quality and safety.

Through cooperation with Toyota, the company is expected to benefit in many ways: the technology output highlights the company’s new energy technology advantages, enhances the brand value and promotes sales growth; the external supply of core components such as power batteries promotes the addition of large customers, bringing considerable revenue and performanceIncremental; the company is expected to learn from Toyota cooperation, continue to improve in areas such as quality and safety, and enhance core competitiveness.

We expect the company’s estimated earnings for 2019-2021 to be zero.

62 yuan, 1.

12 yuan and 1.

54 yuan, maintain BUY rating.

  Key points of support level Technology output enhances brand value and promotes sales growth.

The company has obvious competitive advantages in new energy vehicle technology, supply chain, brand and other fields. It has ranked first in domestic new energy production and sales for a long time. Tang EV / DM and other models exceeded the price limit of 250,000 yuan.

The company headquarters has cooperated with Mercedes-Benz in the field of new energy vehicles. The technical output of the company and the development of pure electric vehicles with Toyota are another proof of the company’s new energy vehicle technology leadership, and gradually increase the company’s new energy vehicle brand value and helpIncreased sales.

  New major customers of electric parts and components, and prospects for external supply and spin-off.

The products designed and developed by the joint venture company will make full use of BYD’s existing electric platform technology and electric components. The company’s core products such as power batteries and electric motor control will reach millions of dollars, and the prospect of increasing large customers is expected.

Toyota Motor announced at the June 2019 electrification strategy conference that it will sell more than 5.5 million HEVs / PHEVs / BEVs / FCEVs in 2025. The company’s power batteries and electric motor control are expected to receive some orders. It is expected to bring considerable futureRevenue and performance increase.

BYD’s power battery has long been ranked in the top two in China. It has the entire industry chain layout of IGBT, the core component of electric drive systems, and is recombining silicon carbide in commercialization. The prospects for external supply and spin-off are promising.

  Cooperating to learn from others to enhance their capabilities is conducive to long-term development.

Toyota is the world’s leading car manufacturer and has a global reputation for ownership in areas such as 杭州桑拿网 safety, quality, and lean manufacturing.

The company is committed to learning from Toyota in the process of cooperation, improving research and development, cost and quality control capabilities, continuous improvement in areas such as safety and quality, enhancing the company’s core competitiveness and benefiting long-term development.

  We estimate that the company’s 2019-2021 revenue will be 0.

62 yuan, 1.

12 yuan and 1.

At 54 yuan, new energy sales are under short-term pressure, but the long-term prospects are promising. The company’s internal leading position is stable. The external supply of power batteries, IGBTs, etc. and the prospects for spin-offs are promising.

  The main risks faced by the rating 1) The car sales were lower than expected; 2) The gross profit margin of new energy and other businesses increased significantly.

Hengrui Pharmaceutical (600276): PD-1 monoclonal antibody approved for listing, innovative pipeline harvests heavy varieties

Hengrui Pharmaceutical (600276): PD-1 monoclonal antibody approved for listing, innovative pipeline harvests heavy varieties

The company’s recent situation Hengrui Pharmaceutical released an announcement that the company’s product under development PD-1 monoclonal antibody (carelizumab) was approved by NMPA for domestic market, and its indication is regenerative / refractory classic Hodgkin’s lymphoma (R / R) CHL).

The company is in the process of researching and developing innovative pipelines to harvest one of the most important products.

Comment on the third domestic company to open up a multi-billion-level market.

At present, there are two imported PD-1 drugs in China: Opdivo (BMS), Keytruda (Mercedes), and two domestic drugs, Teripril (Munshi Bio) and Xindili (Mastro).

Hengrui was approved as the fifth company in China and the third in China. It took 13 months from the application of NDA to the final approval.

It has a wide range of indications and can be used in combination with a variety of existing treatments to enhance its efficacy. PD-1 / PD-L1 drugs have been sold rapidly since they were approved for marketing in the United States in 2014. The global breakthrough in 2018 has exceeded $ 15 billion.
According to our calculations, the domestic PD-1 / PD-L1 market space is expected to be close to 50 billion yuan (for details, please refer to “One of the New Biological Innovation Series Studies”).

Hengrui is expected to expand the largest domestic market share: 1) Strong sales team and marketing capabilities: Hengrui has worked in tumor sales for many years and achieved rapid volume after listing; 2) It has carried out most clinical studies and has rapid progress in large indications: HengruiThe progress of NSCLC, liver cancer and other major indications is leading domestically. We expect to be approved for marketing in the next 1-2 years. 3) The advancement of combined drug promotion is ahead: more than 30 clinical trials of combined therapy have been implemented and implemented for HCC and NSCLC.Multiple joint programs.

Do we think Hengrui PD-1 is expected to expand domestically?
With a 20% market share, it has become a blockbuster drug with a level of nearly 10 billion.

It will be available in July as soon as possible. Product pricing and follow-up medical insurance negotiations deserve special attention.

Considering that there is a certain production cycle of biological products, we expect that Hengrui PD-1 monoclonal antibody mutation will try to be officially launched for sale in late July.

At present, the average annual domestic treatment cost of two imported drugs is 400,000 to 600,000 yuan (200,000 to 400,000 yuan after low-income people donate medicine), and the average annual treatment cost of two domestic medicines 杭州夜网 is between 180,000 to 27,000 (low-income gifts(90,000 to 180,000 post-drug), how to price Hengrui products after listing and follow-up medical insurance negotiations deserves special attention.

Estimates suggest that we maintain EPS 1 for 2019/2020.

22 yuan / 1.

49 yuan unchanged, the previous growth was 33.

2% / 22.


We maintain our recommendation level and target price of 73.

3 yuan unchanged (corresponding to the current remaining 17.

9% upside), the target price corresponding to PE in 2019/20 is 60X / 49X.

The current sustainable corresponding PE for 2019/20 is 51X / 42X.

Risks The development of major PD-1 indications has fallen short of expectations; drug sales have fallen short of expectations.

Kouzijiao (603589): Steady growth of high-quality private enterprises enjoy the upgrade bonus of emblem wine consumption

Kouzijiao (603589): Steady growth of high-quality private enterprises enjoy the upgrade bonus of emblem wine consumption

Investment points: Investment rating and estimation: The company’s 2019-2021 revenue is forecasted to be 4.8 billion, 55 billion, 64 billion, an increase of 13%, 15%, 16%, and its net profit attributable to its mothers will be 18 respectively.

5, 22.

100 million, 26.

4. 21%, 19%, 20% growth each year.

EPS are 3 respectively.

09 yuan, 3.

67 yuan, 4.

4 yuan, the current expected corresponding PE for 2019-2021 is 19x, 16x, 13x, according to DDM estimates, the company reasonably estimates 64.

22 yuan, the first coverage given “overweight” rating.

Key assumptions: predict that the company’s sales of high-end products from 2019 to 2021 will increase by 8%, 10%, 11%, ton prices will increase by 5%, 5%, 5%, and revenue will increase by 13%, 16%, 17%.

Different from the public: the management team is excellent and stable, and the executive shareholding incentives are sufficient.

The management team of Kouzi Warehouse is stable, with an average tenure of participation for up to 20 years, which means that there are many industry elites such as national brewers, with rich experience and excellent resumes.

As a decomposition of the scale of private enterprises in the formulation and implementation of business strategies compared to state-owned enterprises, Kouzi Warehouse reflects the wisdom of Kouzi Cellar in its highly targeted and strategic substitution.

The pursuit of excellence in winemaking technology is the quality guarantee of the mouth cellar.

Kouzijiao is a typical representative of both flavored liquors. Usually, the technical committee of flavored liquors is set up in Kouzi Wine Industry. In 2003, it was the national standard for Kouzi wines formulated by Kouzi Storage.

The long-term Kouzi cellar has continued to build the brand power of true storage, and has improved the brewing process by innovating and innovating the entire brewing process of making, stacking, distilling and storing wine, always maintaining the stability of product quality.

The continued upward shift in product structure drove a steady increase in gross profit margin.

From 2011 to 2018, the gross profit margin of Kouzi Warehouse increased from 62% to 74%. The improvement in gross profit margin was mainly caused by the upgrading of product structure.

From 2011 to 2018, Kouzijiao’s high-end product revenue has a compound annual growth rate of 14%, the ton price has increased for 7 consecutive years, and the annual compound growth rate is 10%. The proportion of high-end wine revenue has increased from 77% to 96%.

Consumption upgrade is a continuous and stable process. The market for Huijiu is large and the dividends of consumption upgrade are obvious. Real estate wine is leading the upgrade of consumption. In the future, the product structure of Kouzijiao will continue to increase, which will continue to drive the continuous improvement of gross profit margin.

Intensive cultivation in the province continued to sink, and there was some relaxation outside the province.

Kouzi Warehouse adopts a large commercial system and has strict control over expenses. Kouzi Warehouse continues to improve the efficiency of use of expenses, and the sales expense rate 南宁桑拿 continues to decline. At the same time, the overlapping product structure has been improved, resulting in a continuous increase in net interest rate.

From 2011 to 2018, the net interest rate of Kouzi Warehouse increased from 19% to 36%, second only to Moutai, Guizhou. The net interest rate has increased extremely fast. It is expected that the net interest rate will continue to increase steadily in the future.

In the future, the market space of Kouzi cellars in the province will still lie in the deep digging of channels and sinking to township markets. Kouzi cellars have a stable foundation in the province and will grow steadily in the long term.

After the adjustment in recent years, the business outside the province has resumed growth. In the new round of expansion outside the province, the company pays more attention to quality, and the business outside the province will remain an important force in the future.

Highest performing catalyst: higher-than-expected growth in premium products Core assumptions risk: Macroeconomic downturn affects demand for liquor

Wuliangye (000858): Solving two major problems, Second Entrepreneurship will welcome fruit

Wuliangye (000858): Solving two major problems, “Second Entrepreneurship” will welcome fruit

The company is working hard to solve two major problems, and the dawn is already here.

The company has changed from the liquor king to the second in the industry, and the main brand price has diverged from that of Maotai. In the past 10 years, differences have accumulated between the brand perceptions of high-end consumers. We believe that there are two problems in the expansion. First,It is because the brand story of Wuliangye was not told well during the transition from the “channel era” to the “brand era”. It contains four aspects of “craftsmanship, ingenuity, history, and culture”. At this stage, Maotai achieved the brand relying on quality to surpass Wuliangye.The price surpassed Wuliangye and also led the sales volume to keep ahead; the second is the relatively lagging evolution of channel model and channel management.

Since 2019, the company has 杭州桑拿 begun to focus on solving two major problems, channel reform and brand upgrade system engineering. We believe that the way out is determined by the way of thinking, and the improvement of implementation, the solution of the two major issues is optimistic.

Consolidate the level of Luzhou King, and strive for strength with a “second venture” pragmatic attitude.

Wuliangye has been in the leading position in the industry since the mid-1990s, and the inheritance of its strong fragrance king has continued to this day.

The concept of Wuliangye’s “Second Entrepreneurship” put forward by Li Shuguang after taking office in 2017 has been deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, and the marketing decision management system has been comprehensively improved. In 2018, leadership and employee incentives were successfully implemented, and a new chapter of “Politics, Harmony, and Harmony” was launched.The price has increased substantially, and the brand value has peaked again.

The impact of the epidemic is limited and the core is focused on long-term competition.

The outbreak of new coronavirus pneumonia during the Spring Festival in 2020 will affect the sales of liquor in the peak season, but high-end liquors will have a smaller impact on sales during the peak season due to the advancement of payment and stock preparation. At present, the company’s Q1 progress is in line with expectations, and the overall impact is controllable.

The effective core focus of benign transformation of blue chips includes the long-term competition of “product, brand, channel” three forces: 1) Luzhou-flavor is still the highest proportion of aroma type, and the stock market is huge. Wuliangye Luzhou-flavor Liquor King is stable; 2) BrandThe power is second only to Maotai, and it is in the closing position of our “net fish model”, which continues to benefit from the consumption and upgrade of liquor; 3) leading the production capacity of high-quality wine, and continuously improving the storage capacity to enhance the protection of base liquor;Digital marketing management system leads the industry; 5) Solidarity and strong leadership with core leaders.

In 2020, the resolute landing plan will be gradually reformed to start growth.

The company’s reform ideas have taken shape, and have gradually begun to mainly be in Q4 2018. It has just been one year. The series of wine reforms marked by “three-in-one” began in June 20, 19, and it is still less than one year. We believe that 2020年 年是坚决落地执行,并更系统和细化的年份。
In 2019, the company completed the initial reform of the marketing organization (the marketing center became a theater), and initially promoted the change of the control and distribution model under digital empowerment, that is, the volume and price rose, and the benign development of channel inventory was achieved.The refinement gradually narrows down the forecast range and marketing resources, scientific and powerful reward and punishment mechanism, reduces the manufacturer’s game, and achieves better price-sale, which brings promising growth prospects.

Investment suggestion: Maintain the Buy-A investment rating, and consider the impact of the epidemic situation to fine-tune the 12-month target price of 158.

00 yuan, equivalent to 28 in 2020.

4x price-earnings ratio.

Risk Warning: The epidemic is higher than expected; demand forecast for high-end wine.

Shanxi Coking (600740): Coking’s main business drags down performance Huajin contributes considerable investment income

Shanxi Coking (600740): Coking’s main business drags down performance Huajin contributes considerable investment income

Event: On August 19, 2019, the company released a semi-annual report, reporting that the two companies realized operating income of 34.

4.0 billion, down 2 every year.

98%, realized net profit attributable to mother 7.

67 ppm, a decrease of 6 per year.

98%, net profit after deduction is 7.

870,000 yuan, an increase of 19 in ten years.


Ping Hua’s promotion continued to contribute considerable investment income, and the coking business dragged down the performance: the company achieved net profit attributable to its mother in the first half of the year.

67 ppm, a decrease of 6 per year.

98% during the period, the company recognized the investment income of China Coal Huajin.

30,000 yuan, that is, operating profit increased by 11.

30,000 yuan.

In the first half of the year, the company’s main business decreased, and its main business gross profit margin was -10.

8% dragged down the release of performance.

In the second quarter, the net profit attributable to the mother for the second quarter was 2.

95 ‰, a decrease of 39 per year.

6%, a drop of 37 from the previous month.


Net investment income in the second quarter was 4.

6.8 billion, down 26.


In the first half of the year, the amount of coke was reduced, and the cost increased significantly: due to environmental protection and production restrictions, the company’s coke output decreased by 8 in the first half.

7% to 140.

2 nominal, sales fell 8.

5% to 141 budget.

The ton of pyroformaldehyde is 1661.

51 yuan / ton, an increase of 2 in ten years.


The amount of raw coal purchased was 184.

In May, it fell by 14 each year.

3%, the purchase price is 1229.

4 yuan / ton, up 13 before.


In the single quarter, the company produced coke 79 in the second quarter.

1 Initially, it decreases by 5 per year.

92%, an increase of 29 from the previous month.

49%; sales of coke 77.

9 initially, down 4 each year.07%, an increase of 23 from the previous month.


The ton of pyroformaldehyde is 1664.

8 yuan / ton, up 5 before.

07%, down from the previous month.


The purchase volume of raw coal in the second quarter was 184.

5 Initially, the annual decline is 14.

3%, an increase of 20 from the previous month.

67%, the purchase price is 1241.

5 yuan / ton, temporarily increased by 13.

1%, an increase of 2 from the previous month.


Decline in the price of chemical products: The price of the company’s chemical products fell in the first half of the year, of which the price of pure benzene fell the most, with a 北京夜网 decline of more than 32.

2% to 3624.

6 yuan / ton, followed by methanol, the price dropped by 18 year-on-year.

5% to 1772.

1 yuan / ton; carbon black price is 4720.

4 yuan / ton, down 17 previously.

3%; asphalt in the first half of the year was 3,097.

9 yuan / ton decreased by 5 year-on-year.

5%; industrial naphthalene formaldehyde is 3572.

2 yuan / ton, down 4 before.


Investment suggestion: It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to its parent in 2019-2021 will be 16.



3.3 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 1.



14 yuan / share.

Considering that the overall prosperity of the coal sector has picked up, and the company’s overall estimate is at a low level, it is given a “Buy-A” rating with a 6-month target price of 11.

20 yuan, corresponding to 10 times PE.

Risk warning: coke prices have fallen sharply, coking coal prices have risen less than expected, and investment income has exceeded expectations.

Wanneng Power (000543): Joining State Grid Investment in Pumped Storage, Anhui Power Supply and Demand Provides Good Development Potential

Wanneng Power (000543): Joining State Grid Investment in Pumped Storage, Anhui Power Supply and Demand Provides Good Development Potential
Event: The company issued an announcement on a long-term investment intention agreement.The company and State Grid Xinyuan have preliminary “Letter of Intent for Cooperation”, and the two parties reached a preliminary intent on joint construction of Anhui Tongcheng Pumped Storage Power Station Project. Key points of investment: It is planned to cooperate with State Grid Corporation of China and the Three Gorges Group to build a pumped storage power station and enter the Anhui power peak shaving market.State Grid New Source, which first issued the Letter of Intent for Cooperation, holds 70% of shares of State Grid Corporation and 30% of shares of Three Gorges Group.The company plans to cooperate with State Grid Xinyuan to build Anhui Tongcheng Pumped Storage Power Station Project.The power plant is located on the Nanchong River, a tributary of the upper reaches of the trailer river in Tongcheng City, Anqing City. In 2010, it was divided into the “Planning Site Selection Report of Anhui Pumped Storage Power Station” and obtained approval from the National Energy Administration.The power station intends to install 4 sets of 320,000 kilowatt reversible pump-turbine generator sets to receive the 500,000 volt voltage level of the Anhui power grid.Project investment is about 74.9 trillion, plans to start construction by the end of 2019.After completion, it will undertake tasks such as peak and valley filling, frequency regulation and emergency backup in Anhui power system. The supply and demand of the Anhui power market is improving, and the company is growing and growing.Anhui is located in the Yangtze River Delta. Due to the transfer of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai’s industrial production capacity and the advantages of the local economy’s late development, power demand and power load have grown rapidly.On January 8, 2019, the electricity consumption growth rate of the whole society in Anhui Province7.62%, higher than the national average of 3.17 units.Anhui’s thermal power installed capacity accounts for nearly 90%. Through the increase in new energy and external call consumption, the peak pressure of the Anhui power grid is increasing, and pumped storage is of great significance for the development of peak shaving resources. In 2014, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a price formation mechanism for pumped storage generators, implementing a two-part price of electricity for capacity and electricity for electricity. Among them, the capacity electricity price compensates fixed costs and permitted returns, and the returns are determined according to the risk-free rate of return (long-term treasury bond yield) plus 1-3 variable risk returns; the electricity price replaces the variable costs such as pumping power generation losses;Pumped-storage power stations implement benchmark capacity electricity prices.In the long run, investing in the optimized asset structure of the company’s pumped 厦门夜网 storage power generation and cooperating with the State Grid Corporation to enter the power peak shaving market is in line with its long-term development strategy. Completed the acquisition of 49% equity of Shenwan Energy and contributed investment income from June.On May 29, the company completed the transfer of 49% equity of Shenwan Energy.In the first half of the year, Shenwan Energy achieved net profit2.66 million, contributing about 28.35 million yuan in investment income to the company.Shenwan Energy is backed by the coal resources advantage of the National Energy Investment Group, with low fuel costs and strong profitability.At the beginning of the year, two additional 660,000 kilowatt units of Lujiang Power Plant were put into operation, and the net profit in the first half of the year increased by 11% annually.In 苏州夜网论坛 October 2018, the company increased its capital and shares in Fuyang China Resources, increasing its shareholding ratio to 56.36%.Anhui Province has always been a green area in the early warning mechanism of coal power investment construction. Seizing the development opportunity, the company started the construction of Fuyang China Resources Phase 2 2 * 660,000 kilowatt coal power project in November 2018.In the future, the company’s power generation asset volume and performance scale will be further enhanced.Profit forecast and estimation: Pumped-storage power generation will start construction at the end of the year. We will not consider the impact of the project on profits for the time being. We maintain the 2019-2021 net profit return to mother at 8.82, 11.66, 13.310,000 yuan, EPS is 0.39, 0.51 and 0.59 yuan per share, corresponding to 19, 21, and PE are 12, 9, and 8 times.The company PB is 0.83 times lower than the industry average. The injection of Shenwan Assets significantly improved the overall profitability and maintained a “Buy” rating.

Zoomlion (000157) 2019 first quarter performance forecast comment: first quarter performance exceeded expectations 2019 main business advantage is obvious

Zoomlion (000157) 2019 first quarter performance forecast comment: first quarter performance exceeded expectations 2019 main business advantage is obvious

The first quarter of 2019 exceeded expectations.

In the first quarter of 2019, the company expects to achieve net profit attributable to mothers.


5 ppm, with an expected increase of 125 in ten years.

6% -178.

7%, an increase of 18.

1% -45.

8%; expected expected return of 0.


13 yuan.

Benefiting from the continued strong recovery of the construction machinery industry and the 杭州桑拿网 company’s continuous increase in the market share of its products, the company’s operating performance has significantly improved, and its first-quarter performance has achieved unexpected growth.

The total revenue of cranes and concrete machinery accounts for nearly 80%. In 2019, the post-cycle recycling of construction machinery ushers in a peak period.

In the construction sequence and update rhythm, cranes and concrete machinery lag behind excavators, and it is expected to usher in a peak period of replacement in 2019-2020.

In 2019, cranes and concrete machinery are also expected to officially form a relay excavator to become a driving force for the continuous recovery of the construction machinery industry.

In 2018, the company divested its environmental business. The main business of construction machinery achieved rapid growth, and concrete machinery / lifting machinery respectively achieved revenue of 101.


7 trillion, an increase of 38 each year.

6% / 83.

3%, accounting for 35% of revenue.

4% / 43.


The company’s domestic market share of hoisting machinery and concrete machinery continues to maintain the top two positions, among which construction hoisting machinery and concrete long boom pump trucks remain the first in the industry.

The company’s main products continued to boom in production and sales, both volume and price went up, the average down payment ratio reached 40%, and asset quality improved significantly.

The recovery of cranes and concrete machinery is expected to drive the rapid growth of the company’s performance. The company’s main business advantage is obvious, and its operating performance in 2019 is expected to go one step further.

Profitability has been continuously enhanced, and operating cash flow has reached the best level in history.

In the first quarter of 2019, the company paid more attention to long-term growth and continued to advance4.

0 Product engineering, product sales structure has further improved, and profitability has continued to increase.

In 2018, the company’s gross profit margin reached 27.

1%, an increase of 5 per year.

7 points; net margin is 6.

8%, increase by 1 every year.

5pct; sales expense ratio / administrative expense ratio / financial expense ratio are reduced by 2.




In 2018, the company’s gross profit margin showed a trend of increasing quarter by quarter, and its profitability increased quarter by quarter. In 2019, it will continue to increase.

In 2018, the company’s operating cash flow reached 50.

60,000 yuan, an increase of 77 in ten years.6%, the company’s sales repayment ability has been greatly improved, and its cash flow situation has improved significantly. In 2018, operating cash flow reached the best level in history.

In 2019, the recovery of the construction machinery industry is expected to continue, the company’s operating quality is expected to further improve, and the financial statement repair will continue to advance.

Investment suggestion: The company is one of the leading companies in the construction machinery industry in developing countries.

We expect the company’s expected earnings in 2019/2020 to be 0.


50 yuan, the current sustainable corresponding 武汉夜网论坛 PE is 12 respectively.


1x, giving the company a “Recommended” rating.

Risk reminders: macroeconomic growth rate; decline in industry prosperity; vicious market competition; deterioration of overseas trade environment; performance is less than expected.

Cobos (603486) 2019 Interim Report Review: Domestic Demand Pressures Leader and Shoulder

Cobos (603486) 2019 Interim Report Review: Domestic Demand Pressures Leader and Shoulder
Event: Cobos released its 2019 Interim Report, and the company achieved operating income of 24 in 2019H1.3 ‰, at least -3.8%, realizing net profit attributable to mother 1.3 trillion, -36 a year.6%.Among them, the company achieved revenue in 2019Q211.8 ‰, at least -10.2%, net profit attributable to mother is 61.4 million yuan, -46 for many years.9%, single-quarter revenue and profit exceeded expectations, sweeping machine OEM orders continued to decrease, the domestic independent brand sweeping machine revenue growth accelerated, resulting in sweeping machine business growth slower than market expectations. In addition, the company launched an extended stock incentive plan for 2019 (supplementary). Comments: Revenue analysis: Decreasing demand for domestic sweepers is the primary role of the company’s revenue under pressure. 1) The internal sales revenue of sweeper brands has stalled, and export sales have maintained rapid growth. 19H1 robot independent brand revenue increased by +11.2%, of which 19Q2 independent brand revenue is estimated at least during the period, mainly due to the decline in domestic independent brand revenue in 19Q2.According to the monitoring data of Zhongyikang, the retail sales of the domestic sweeper industry in H1 2019 decreased by 9%.2%, especially 19Q2, was significantly above.Although Cobos’ retail sales share exceeded 8pc to 48%, the domestic sales revenue of sweeping machines is still under pressure. Cobos is a domestic sweeper enterprise that pioneered overseas markets with its own team. In 19H1, it continued to expand its sales team. Against the background of the continuous outbreak of overseas demand, the company ‘s independent brand ‘s overseas revenue grew rapidly, with a growth rate of 40%about. 2) The contraction of OEM orders for sweeping machines is stronger than market expectations.In 2018, the company’s cleaning machine foundry revenue was about 4 trillion, but it can penetrate the European and American markets through the Cobos brand and compete directly. The company chose to strategically abandon some of the foundry orders.Starting from 2018H2, the company’s robot foundry business began to shrink, and the revenue of the sweeper foundry business increased from 18H1 to 2.About 5 million dropped significantly to about 4,000 million in 19H1, and the contraction was stronger than the market expected. 3) Due to the impact of tariffs on vacuum cleaner foundry, 19H1 revenue decreased by 14%.The US government’s plan to impose tariffs on US $ 200 billion of Chinese goods includes vacuum cleaners. On January 1, 2019, a 10% tariff was implemented.In order to minimize the impact of tariffs, the 2018H2 industry began to show obvious export orders for vacuum cleaners, which partially overdrawn orders in the first half of 2019, so the company’s 19H1 vacuum cleaner OEM / ODM export revenue decreased by 14%. 4) Revenue of vacuum cleaner’s own brand increased to zero.9.6 billion.19H1 increased its product development and promotion in the “TINECO” brand vacuum cleaner business. 19H1 revenue increased by 119% to 0 compared with the same period last year.9.6 billion. Taken together, the company’s revenue growth in the past two quarters was +3.1%, -10.2%, the growth rate expanded earlier than 18 years, mainly affected by three factors: 1) private brand robot revenue growth channels; 2) robot OEM orders significantly reduced; 2) vacuum cleaner OEM orders due to early “robbing exports””Overdraft, interference. Profitability: R & D, channel expenses, and profitability are under pressure. The company’s overall gross profit margin for 2019H1 will still increase by 0.7pct, of which 19Q2 gross margin increased slightly by 0.2pct.As the overseas market increased the distribution ratio, and the gross profit margin of the distribution channel relatively decreased, the company’s gross profit margin in Q2 2019 narrowed and remained basically the same. Cobos continues to add research and development and sales talent, with costs increasing even more.The concentration of the sweeper industry is constantly increasing. It is related to the expansion of Cobos. Cobos can increase its R & D investment to maintain guidance on the product side and build high competition barriers.At the same time, actively explore new markets and new channels. Some Coboss have aggressively entered mainstream offline retail channels such as Bestbuy and Costco in the United States to seize first-mover advantages at the channel end. In the absence of sufficient capacity in other aspects, a reasonable choice to increase investment in products and channels, but it will inevitably lead to an increase in the short-term sales and R & D expense ratio.Close to 4pct. Growth, short-term pressure on profitability.As the company invested a lot of resources to strengthen its R & D and sales capabilities, but the short-term revenue growth rate dropped, so the operating profit margin was under pressure.In addition, 2018H1 generated exchange gains of 678 million, while 2019H1 generated exchange losses of 810,000 yuan, so the net profit margin for 2019H1 decreased by 3.6 points to 5.2%, short-term profitability pressure. Assets and profit quality: Inventories and accounts receivables continued to increase. The normal operating performance of the company in 2019H1 was 481.8 billion. The net cash flow from operating activities was successfully positive, and it increased significantly compared with the same period last year. The steady increase of the company’s accounts receivable is estimated to be related to the extension of the account period of domestic e-commerce platforms.Since the overseas market was developed through the internal sales team, 19H1 inventories still had 1.1 billion U.S. dollars. It is expected that the income from the transfer of overseas markets will grow rapidly and the inventories may rise. The above changes can have normal operating results. Business prospects: Deeply plowing domestic and foreign markets, betting on transition products companies to use alternative space in the financial report to discuss and analyze the company’s core competitiveness, business status, and future development status in detail. Looking forward, the company’s business focus is divided into threeAspects: 1) Increase domestic low-end product lines and find increments in difficult situations: The rapid decline in domestic market demand in the first half of 2019 was unexpected, and it must be found in difficult situations before it is put into product launch.The low-end random product line is within the company’s ability and a lucrative market segment. The company 成都桑拿网 is expected to become a new brand and re-enter the low-end random product market to survive the low tide of the industry. 2) Accelerate the development of overseas markets with the United States as the core: The United States is the initial popularity of sweepers and one of the countries with the largest market potential, but as the home base of iRobot, its market share is always firmly in the hands of iRobot.The reason is that offline channels are still the mainstream channels in the US market, and entering these mainstream channels is not easy.In 2018, Cobos became the only Chinese brand that entered the mainstream retail channels in the United States on a large scale. About 40% of the growth rate of overseas independent brands in the first half of 2019 was due to the accelerated development of overseas channels. 3) Betting on cutting-edge products to lead the market back to growth: DG70 equipped with AIVI technology is Coves’ first attempt in the field of machine vision. In the annual report, we saw the company introduce the development of a new generation of sensor modules for the first time.Trying to improve the robot’s in-depth understanding of space and environmental information, the company is expected to realize a new generation of sensor modules in 2020, which will upgrade the product experience of sweepers. If consumers can recognize alternative products, the domestic market is expected to return to growth. Profit forecast, forecast and rating predict that the company’s revenue growth rate in 2019 will be more than 10%, among which the growth rate of the sweeper’s independent brand business is 10?20%.The company’s 2019 annual stock incentive plan’s performance evaluation target for independent brands of sweepers is to increase by 10% per year in 2019 and 20% per year in 2020-2022. Due to the continuous increase in expenses and the supplementation of revenue growth, the company’s short-term profitability is under pressure. The company’s 2019 stock incentive plan’s assessment target for net profit growth is an annual increase of 15% from 2020-2022. Because the company’s 19Q2 performance exceeded expectations, we cut 2019?The 21-year net profit forecast is 4.8/5.9/7.200 million (was 5).8/7.2/8.800 million), due to the increase in equity, the corresponding EPS is adjusted to 0.85/1.05/1.At 29 yuan, the current PE is expected to be 30/24/20 times. Although the domestic market needs short-term difficulties, the service robot circuit is still full of opportunities to maintain the “overweight” level. Risk Warning: The global demand for sweepers is lower than expected; and a large amount of investment is increased.

First open shares (600376): performance increased by nearly 30%, annual sales scale is expected to maintain 100 billion

First open shares (600376): performance increased by nearly 30%, annual sales scale is expected to maintain 100 billion
The results from January 3, 19 to the third quarter of 19 were in line with our expected company performance: operating income of $ 29.5 billion, an increase of 39%; net profit attributable to mothers of $ 2.4 billion, an increase of 29%, corresponding to zero diluted earnings.82 yuan, in line with expectations.  Revenue increased by nearly 40%, and gross margin increased.In the first three quarters, the company’s operating income increased by 39% per year (the previous settlement area increased by 32% per year), and the gross profit after tax further increased by 109%, driving the gross profit margin after tax to increase by 11 to 31% gradually from the same period last year (including the third quarter taxAfter the gross profit margin of 27%).The minority shareholders’ profit and loss increased to 2.3 billion (200 million in the same period last year), accounting for 49% of net profit, and finally recorded a net profit increase of 29% attributable to the parent.  The amount of cash in hand fell, and leverage was still high.In the first three quarters, the company’s net operating cash was reduced to US $ 1.6 billion (including a net inflow of 42 trillion in the third quarter). At the end of the period, cash at hand at the end of the period decreased by 11% to 210 trillion, which is equivalent to only 0.68 times.The net debt ratio at the end of the period was 1213%, which was the same as the end of the interim report and remained at a relatively high level.  The development trend is expected to successfully complete the annual sales target.The company’s third quarter budget / sale area increased by 33% / 23% to 28.7 billion US dollars / 970,000 square meters, which led to an increase of approximately 32% in the first three quarters to US $ 69.1 billion, and sales area increased 21% to 2.41 millionThe average sales price increased by 9% annually to 28,636 yuan / square meter.Taking into account the relatively high proportion of push sales in the fourth quarter, we expect the company to achieve a sales target of US $ 101 billion in ten years (corresponding to 10?(December averaged $ 10.6 billion in December, compared with $ 16.1 billion in the same period in 2018).  Take rare earth in the third quarter.In the first three quarters, the 苏州桑拿网 company’s new soil reserves in Suzhou, Wenzhou, Fuzhou, Beijing and other cities increased by 80% to 1.62 million square meters, of which the new soil reserves in the third quarter were only 140,000 square meters, which gradually decreased by 65%.  Is the initial dividend ratio expected to increase to 35%?40%.We expect the company’s dividend ratio to increase to 35% in 2019?40% (33% in 2018), corresponding to a 2019 / 2020e yield of 5.9% / 6.6% (the dividend ratio is calculated according to 35% traditionally), which is at a relatively high level in the industry.  Earnings forecasts and estimates remain unchanged from 2019/2020 earnings forecasts. The company currently expects to trade at 6.0/5.3x 2019/2020 forecast P / E ratio.Maintain Neutral rating and raise TP by 4% to 8.95 yuan (mainly due to the increase in the proportion of dividends), corresponding to 6.2/5.5x 2019/2020 target price-earnings ratio, which has continued to be 4 in recent times.4% upside.  The key cities of risk layout are less than expected; the company’s delivery schedule is lower than expected.