SAIC Group (600104) quarterly report comments: first quarter results, sales are basically in sync with the industry and look forward to the inflection point
The event company released the first quarter report of 2019: total operating income of US $ 202 billion, approximately -16%; net profit attributable to mothers of US $ 8.3 billion, each time -15%; non-net profit of US $ 7.6 billion, -14% to date; incremental average net assetsThe rate of return (ROE) is 3.
44%, a decrease of 0 from the same period last year.
Opinions In the first quarter, the industry boom continued its downturn, the company’s performance was under pressure, and the data basically kept pace with the industry.
According to the China Automobile Association, passenger vehicle sales in the first quarter of 2019 were 5.26 million units, every -14%; meanwhile, the company’s total car sales were 1.53 million units, each -16%; revenue, net 北京养生会所 profit attributable to the mother, correspondingly, 16%,15%.
The short-term deduction of non-net profit is slightly better than the net profit attributable to the mother, which is mainly due to the decrease in non-recurring earnings in the first quarter of 2019.Fair value generates income.
[Joint venture brand]SAIC Volkswagen sold 470,000 vehicles in the first quarter, -9% in half a year. The product structure is reasonable. In the future, it is expected that the SAIC Audi project will accelerate its implementation and help SAIC to enter the luxury market.
SAIC-GM / SAIC-GM-Wuling’s sales in the first quarter reached 430,000 units, every 13% /-25%; the brand continued to actively go to the warehouse.
In the first quarter, joint ventures and joint ventures contributed US $ 6.1 billion in investment income, -13% per 夜来香体验网 year, mainly due to the increase in product promotion efforts during the destocking process of joint venture brand terminals.
[Independent Brands]Technology and product reserves are still ahead.
SAIC passenger cars sold 150,000 units in the first quarter, -18% in half a year. Despite the growth rate, SAIC independently grasped the key layout in electric intelligence: 1) In the electric field, the company’s new round of “Sandian” core technology innovation andNew electric vehicle exclusive architecture development and other projects have continued to advance. Infineon has cooperated with Infineon to achieve batch production and delivery of IGBT products. Fuel cell (SAIC 300) trial production test power has reached the world’s leading level; 2) in the intelligent field, with Alibaba, Mobileye, ChinaIndustry giants such as China Mobile and Huawei have deepened cross-border cooperation.
It is expected that in the second half of 2019, the auto consumption policy will be boosted, and the industry inflection point will drive the elasticity of independent sales.
The investment expansion trend remains unchanged, and short-term performance pressure is expected to continue into the second quarter of 2019.
The automobile consumption cycle has shifted from destocking to de-capacity. In the future, inefficient production capacity is gradually cleared. SAIC is expected to realize the survival of the fittest, and is optimistic about the long-term competition pattern of leading companies.
In the short term, according to Tianfeng Motor’s investment clock, the industry cycle inflection point is expected to come in the middle of 19 years, and the first and second quarters of the entire vehicle will face pressure from performance changes.
Profit forecast: It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to its mother will be 37.2 / 399/43 billion in 2019-2021, and the EPS will be 3 respectively.
68 yuan, corresponding to PE 8.
Maintain the “overweight” rating.
Risk reminder: downside risks to the auto market; sales of old models fail to meet expectations; new models are not listed as expected.