Vanke A (000002) company research: Land acquisition and release performance slightly exceeded expectations
Event: The company released the third quarter report for 2019, and the first three quarters achieved revenue of US $ 233.9 billion, an increase of 27 year-on-year.
2%, net profit attributable to mother 182.
40,000 yuan, an increase of 30 in ten years.
4%, the overall slightly exceeded market expectations.
Achieved a budget of 475.6 billion yuan, an annual increase of 10.
2%, sales area of 30.62 million countries, an increase of 5 in ten years.
Sold and outstanding resources are sufficient, and long-term performance can be expected to increase rapidly.
The company has currently sold an outstanding amount of 6362.
4 ppm, covering 2 of the 18-year settlement amount.
The area completed in the first three quarters was 16.4 million countries, accounting for 53 of the previous completion targets.
3%, 59 in the same period last year.
The target completion rate for the past three years is 105% -142%.
The average settlement price in the first three quarters is 1.
46 million per square meter, an increase of 12% in ten years.
According to estimates, the company’s settlement area is expected to be 25.33 million square meters this year, corresponding to a 29% increase in settlement income.
Take the rhythm of the land freely, actively cover the first and second lines, the equity ratio rebounded.
In the first half of the year, the company’s total new land price / sales amount was 30%, and the ratio rose to 65% in the third quarter.
And in the third quarter, the average premium rate of 四川耍耍网 Baicheng residential land was 11.
75%, far lower than 20 in the first half.
2%, showing that the company’s land acquisition rhythm is more forward-looking.
The company continued to plow into the first and second tier cities, and the land prices of the first and second tier equity in the newly added soil reserves accounted for 81%.
The newly-added land reserve equity area accounted for 72.
1%, compared with 54 in the same period last year.
There is a contradiction in 1%.
Adequate saleable resources, better-than-expected new starts, and steady sales growth.
The company currently sells about 1.
1.5 billion cubic meters, covering 18 years of sales area2.
72 times, sufficient soil reserves.
3609 Universal is planned to start in 2019, and 4,992 is expected to start in 2018.
8 universal rankings dropped 27.
In the first three quarters of 2019, new construction area of 3240 was common, accounting for 90% of the previous target, and higher than the target completion rate of 73% in the same period last year.
It is expected that the annual sales volume will grow by 10%.
The overall gross profit margin increased, and the level of leverage declined.
The company ‘s comprehensive gross profit margin from January to September was 36%, surpassing the increase of 1.23 units; of which the gross profit margin for real estate business settlement was 27.
6%, a slight decrease of 0 every year.
2 units; three fees accounted for 8.
0%, a decrease of 0 per year.
9 units; net interest rate 12.
8%, 0 per year.
Net aldehyde rate is 50.
4%, a decline of 0 per year.
Maintain “Buy” rating.
We estimate the company’s operating income from 2019 to 2021 will be 385 billion US dollars / 482.8 billion US dollars / 591.4 billion US dollars, net profit attributable to mothers will be 42.6 billion US dollars / 51.8 billion US dollars / 61.7 billion US dollars, and EPS is 3.
77 yuan / 4.
58 yuan / 5.
46 yuan, the current corresponding PE is 6.
9 times / 5.
7 times / 4.
Target price of 32.
0 yuan (corresponding to 8.
5 times PE).
Risk warning: the company’s completion and settlement are less than expected, the settlement gross margin is less than expected, the new business expansion has not met expectations for a long time, and the financing tightening has exceeded expectations.