Hengrui Pharmaceutical (600276): PD-1 monoclonal antibody approved for listing, innovative pipeline harvests heavy varieties
The company’s recent situation Hengrui Pharmaceutical released an announcement that the company’s product under development PD-1 monoclonal antibody (carelizumab) was approved by NMPA for domestic market, and its indication is regenerative / refractory classic Hodgkin’s lymphoma (R / R) CHL).
The company is in the process of researching and developing innovative pipelines to harvest one of the most important products.
Comment on the third domestic company to open up a multi-billion-level market.
At present, there are two imported PD-1 drugs in China: Opdivo (BMS), Keytruda (Mercedes), and two domestic drugs, Teripril (Munshi Bio) and Xindili (Mastro).
Hengrui was approved as the fifth company in China and the third in China. It took 13 months from the application of NDA to the final approval.
It has a wide range of indications and can be used in combination with a variety of existing treatments to enhance its efficacy. PD-1 / PD-L1 drugs have been sold rapidly since they were approved for marketing in the United States in 2014. The global breakthrough in 2018 has exceeded $ 15 billion.
According to our calculations, the domestic PD-1 / PD-L1 market space is expected to be close to 50 billion yuan (for details, please refer to “One of the New Biological Innovation Series Studies”).
Hengrui is expected to expand the largest domestic market share: 1) Strong sales team and marketing capabilities: Hengrui has worked in tumor sales for many years and achieved rapid volume after listing; 2) It has carried out most clinical studies and has rapid progress in large indications: HengruiThe progress of NSCLC, liver cancer and other major indications is leading domestically. We expect to be approved for marketing in the next 1-2 years. 3) The advancement of combined drug promotion is ahead: more than 30 clinical trials of combined therapy have been implemented and implemented for HCC and NSCLC.Multiple joint programs.
Do we think Hengrui PD-1 is expected to expand domestically?
With a 20% market share, it has become a blockbuster drug with a level of nearly 10 billion.
It will be available in July as soon as possible. Product pricing and follow-up medical insurance negotiations deserve special attention.
Considering that there is a certain production cycle of biological products, we expect that Hengrui PD-1 monoclonal antibody mutation will try to be officially launched for sale in late July.
At present, the average annual domestic treatment cost of two imported drugs is 400,000 to 600,000 yuan (200,000 to 400,000 yuan after low-income people donate medicine), and the average annual treatment cost of two domestic medicines 杭州夜网 is between 180,000 to 27,000 (low-income gifts(90,000 to 180,000 post-drug), how to price Hengrui products after listing and follow-up medical insurance negotiations deserves special attention.
Estimates suggest that we maintain EPS 1 for 2019/2020.
22 yuan / 1.
49 yuan unchanged, the previous growth was 33.
2% / 22.
We maintain our recommendation level and target price of 73.
3 yuan unchanged (corresponding to the current remaining 17.
9% upside), the target price corresponding to PE in 2019/20 is 60X / 49X.
The current sustainable corresponding PE for 2019/20 is 51X / 42X.
Risks The development of major PD-1 indications has fallen short of expectations; drug sales have fallen short of expectations.